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James R. Lilley - China Hands: Nine Decades of Adventure, Espionage, and Diplomacy in Asia
TRANSCRIPT
China's New Challenge to the U.S.-Japan Alliance
As Chinese warships and naval survey vessels ply Japanese waters hoping to stake their claim to potentially gas-rich seabeds, the United States is sending mixed signals to Japan on the U.S.-Japan alliance. Ambiguity in Washington may undermine Japanese confidence in the alliance-in itself, a major strategic goal for Beijing. Washington must now publicly support Japan, our most important ally in Asia, if it hopes to deter China from further adventurism in Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone.
Provocative Behavior
Mongolia's Giant Steppe for Democracy
Democracy in Asia has been full of irony of late. Last week, up to half a million people took to the streets in Hong Kong to protest China's decision that one of the world's most modern cities is still not ready for democracy. Meanwhile the predominantly pastoral population of formerly Communist Mongolia reveled in their democratic freedoms by voting in the country's eighth general election since 1990.
Needed: High-level Contacts between U.S. and Taiwan MilitaryCommanders
In March 1996, when Chinese ballistic missiles were splashing into waters off Taiwan's two major ports-closing the heavily-traveled Taiwan Strait to international maritime traffic for days-the Clinton Administration sent two carrier task forces to the vicinity to persuade Beijing to quiet things down. But none of the commanders on those American ships had ever done contingency consulting with Taiwan defense officials. Nor did they have secure communication links to Taiwan's navy.
Whose One China?
Shaven-headed Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage has the imposing physique of a professional wrestler and is not usually pestered by inquisitive foreign reporters. But on May 18, two Chinese-language television crews stood in his way as he emerged from a Senate hearing room after a grilling on the administration's strategy in Iraq. Rather than barrel through the wall of microphones, betacams, and floodlamps, one of the Chinese reporters told me later, the burly deputy secretary stopped.
Taiwan's Election Changes the Context of U.S.-Taiwan Relations
Most observers in Washington believe that President Chen Shui-bian's victory in the March 20 election will be sustained through the recounts and the independent investigation into the assassination attempt and official Washington is now coming to the realization that his victory marks a dramatic turning-point in Taiwan's history. It also presents American policy makers with a new context for the United States' relationship with Taiwan.
Ambivalent Policy: U.S. Leaves China, Taiwan Puzzled on Intentions
In 2001, President George W. Bush's administration dumped the Bill Clinton policy of "strategic ambiguity" on China-Taiwan, but he replaced it with something worse: strategic ambivalence. And this ambivalence is leaving both Beijing and Taipei dangerously confused about American goals in the East Asia.
Blair Could Make a Strategic Error on China
British Prime Minister Tony Blair is reportedly on the verge of supporting the French proposal to lift the European Union's (EU) arms ban on the People's Republic of China (PRC).1 If true, Mr. Blair would be making a major strategic error that could harm the Anglo-U.S. special relationship. Ultimately, the issue is whether weapons made by America's European allies--including Britain--would ever be used to kill Americans if the United States became involved in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Wen Jiabao and Zeng Qinghong (2): Perspectives on the 'Two Centers' of China’s Fourth Generation:
BIOGRAPHIC ESSAY (2)
Offer Real Support, Not Excuses, for Taiwan's WHO Bid
Taiwan's participation in the World Health Organization (WHO) will be a major topic at the World Health Assembly (WHA) in Geneva on May 17-22, 2004. The United States should take the lead in supporting Taiwan's participation in the WHO and other international bodies because it is in the U.S. national interest. The more Taiwan is accepted into the international community as a valuable contributor, the less legitimate is China's claim of a legal right to use force against Taiwan. Delegitimizing the use of force in the Taiwan Strait also lessens the likelihood of conflict.
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